![]() ![]() As people age, their spending patterns shift, with a pronounced increase in spending on healthcare and other personal services. Aging populationsīy 2030, there will be at least 300 million more people aged 65 years and older than there were in 2014. Globally, we estimate that 250 million to 280 million new jobs could be created from the impact of rising incomes on consumer goods alone, with up to an additional 50 million to 85 million jobs generated from higher health and education spending. The effects of these new consumers will be felt not just in the countries where the income is generated but also in economies that export to these countries. We have previously estimated that global consumption could grow by $23 trillion between 20, and most of this will come from the consuming classes in emerging economies. Rising incomes and consumption, especially in emerging economies Jobs in unpredictable environments-occupations such as gardeners, plumbers, or providers of child- and eldercare-will also generally see less automation by 2030, because they are technically difficult to automate and often command relatively lower wages, which makes automation a less attractive business proposition.įor the first three trends, we model only a trendline scenario based on current spending and investment trends observed across countries. ![]() It is important to note, however, that even when some tasks are automated, employment in those occupations may not decline but rather workers may perform new tasks.Īutomation will have a lesser effect on jobs that involve managing people, applying expertise, and social interactions, where machines are unable to match human performance for now. This could displace large amounts of labor-for instance, in mortgage origination, paralegal work, accounting, and back-office transaction processing. Collecting and processing data are two other categories of activities that increasingly can be done better and faster with machines. Activities most susceptible to automation include physical ones in predictable environments, such as operating machinery and preparing fast food. The potential impact of automation on employment varies by occupation and sector (see interactive above). Results differ significantly by country, reflecting the mix of activities currently performed by workers and prevailing wage rates. We mainly use the midpoint of our scenario range, which is automation of 15 percent of current activities. Taking these factors into account, our new research estimates that between almost zero and 30 percent of the hours worked globally could be automated by 2030, depending on the speed of adoption. Other factors include the cost of developing and deploying automation solutions for specific uses in the workplace, the labor-market dynamics (including quality and quantity of labor and associated wages), the benefits of automation beyond labor substitution, and regulatory and social acceptance. While technical feasibility of automation is important, it is not the only factor that will influence the pace and extent of automation adoption. However, in about 60 percent of occupations, at least one-third of the constituent activities could be automated, implying substantial workplace transformations and changes for all workers. Very few occupations-less than 5 percent-consist of activities that can be fully automated. We previously found that about half the activities people are paid to do globally could theoretically be automated using currently demonstrated technologies. What impact will automation have on work? How do we manage the upcoming workforce transitions?ġ.What will automation mean for skills and wages?.Will there be enough work in the future?.What are possible scenarios for employment growth?.What impact will automation have on work?.Our key finding is that while there may be enough work to maintain full employment to 2030 under most scenarios, the transitions will be very challenging-matching or even exceeding the scale of shifts out of agriculture and manufacturing we have seen in the past. The results reveal a rich mosaic of potential shifts in occupations in the years ahead, with important implications for workforce skills and wages. Building on our January 2017 report on automation, McKinsey Global Institute’s latest report, Jobs lost, jobs gained: Workforce transitions in a time of automation (PDF–5MB), assesses the number and types of jobs that might be created under different scenarios through 2030 and compares that to the jobs that could be lost to automation.
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